How should local government present their plans for a greener future? Is it better for them to be realistic or else have a vision that, with only limited interventions, will not be achieved? Let’s look at transport but the same is applicable for other carbon strategies.
The various local government organisations, adopt different approaches, as to the strategies they produce. Transport for South East in their modelling, do not hide away from scenarios where active travel (buses, pedestrians and cycling) actually declines. Below is a projection for 2050 called ‘Our Route to Growth’. [Note the cycle logo includes pedestrians.] Following their recent consultation, TfSE agreed to slightly modify their Investment Plan. However the point is, their models are indicative of what may happen, and not necessarily what campaigners might like.
The more problematic approach is when local government, include in their plans, what you would like, but there is no past or future evidence that these will happen. As an example, there are repeated references to the reduction of cars in local borough and county plans. This is against the backdrop of East Sussex County Council predicting, in their A22 A2290 review, an increase in traffic of 15% from now to 2039.
So in the new draft Eastbourne Local Plan, it refers to a 15% reduction in car journeys. This is extremely optimistic. As is elsewhere, a 10% modal shift from 70% trips by car to 60%. This is in the ‘Hailsham Polegate Eastbourne corridor’ and would be offset by a 150% increase in cycling, 125% in bus trips and 60% more walking. Even those who have little experience in transport, will realise, what a colossal task this would be. As background, there has never been a decrease locally in car trips. Plus cycling and bus trips have reduced over the last twenty years.
So what can be done to prevent unrealistic predictions. TfSE have a clear requirement to monitor and evaluate any targets. This could be used elsewhere, to hold any predictions to account, such as large reductions in car journeys.
In summary, campaigners should request that ‘over ambitious claims’, although they may initially be welcome, should have a realistic delivery plan behind them
Paul Humphreys EEAN – Transport Group, Bespoke, Cycle East Sussex